HuffingtonPost: Bernie Sanders Will Become Democratic Nominee Even If Clinton Leads in Delegates
Columnist published in The Cleveland Plain Dealer, The Baltimore Sun, The Hill, Salon, The Jerusalem Post http://www.hagoodman.com
During my latest appearance on CNN International, I addressed the fact that Clinton’s FBI investigation could lead to indictment. In another appearance on CNN International, I explained that anyone fearing Trump must vote for Bernie Sanders, primarily because he defeats Trump by a wider margin than Clinton. These issues, in addition to Bernie’s popularity among younger voters and seventh straight victory, highlight why superdelegates and Democratic Party bosses will eventually side with Sanders over Clinton.
The same dynamic was witnessed eight years ago. Because Barack Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan (interesting things take place when running against Clinton), Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2008. When superdelegates began siding with Obama that year, The Guardian wrote “Most unnerving for Clinton is the trickle of superdelegates who have defected from her corner to Obama’s.” After leading Obama by a 2 to 1 ratio in superdelgates, the reasoning for these party bosses leaving Clinton was summed up by an Arizona Democratic Party official quoted in The New York Times:
“Senator Barack Obama is strengthening the Democratic Party by bringing in new voters, young and old, into the process,” Ms. Fernandez said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. “ I believe Senator Obama has the best ability to win the White House in November and lead this country forward.”
Ms. Fernandez was Mr. Obama’ s 241st superdelegate endorsement…
Bernie Sanders is the epitome of this observation. Sanders dominates Clinton with younger voters, first-time voters, Independent voters, and defeats Trump by a wider margin than the former Secretary of State.
As for a general election, it’s obvious to anyone paying attention that Sanders is the best chance to defeat a Republican. First, he’s not linked to an FBI investigation. Second, Bernie Sanders defeats Trump by 16.5 points according to Real Clear Politics; six more points than Clinton.
If the GOP picks Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders demolishes him by an average of 10.1 points.
Clinton beats Trump by an average of 10.5 points. If the GOP picks Ted Cruz, she barely beats him, and the polling average shows Hillary Clinton ahead by only 2.5 points.
These are Clinton’s poll numbers against Republicans before possible FBI and DOJ indictments, and before the media frenzy that takes place even if Clinton escapes legal consequences. Clinton also doesn’t keep polling leads and lost an over 50-point lead to Bernie Sanders, just like she lost her lead to Obama.
When discussing the issue of why Bernie Sanders will still become Democratic nominee, even if Clinton receives more delegates by late June, let’s take things into context. Bernie Sanders was recently invited to the Vatican by Pope Francis to speak, while Hillary Clinton will be interviewed soon by the FBI. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have attended events to hear Bernie Sanders speak (100,000 people had attended by August of 2015), while Hillary Clinton can’t fathom releasing transcripts of paid Wall Street speeches. Bernie supporters recently rallied outside his childhood apartment in Brooklyn and Sanders delivered an electrifying speech at Bronx Community College. Hillary Clinton recently used a static noise machine to prevent the press from listening to her words at a Denver fundraiser, and this was after roping off reporters last year.
One candidate is admired by millions, as illustrated by Sanders being the only leading candidate in 2016 with positive favorability ratings. The other candidate holds negative favorability ratings in every major national poll; in 6 out of 10 major polls, Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 15 points or more.
Again, in all 10 polls showing negative favorability for Clinton, 6 of these national polls show unfavorable ratings of 15 points or more.
Superdelegates and Democratic Party officials are indeed concerned, especially since even if Clinton escapes FBI indictment, the backlash from no indictment will be fierce, and the media attention alone will hurt general election poll numbers. Ultimately, there will be major consequences from the FBI investigation, and I explain in this YouTube segment what the Clinton campaign thinks of the FBI, and in this YouTube segment why indictments are imminent.
If Clinton survives the FBI and Bernie’s momentum, don’t expect party unity to rally all Democrats if Hillary Clinton gets the nomination. The outdated poll showing33% of Bernie Sanders supporters never voting for Clinton might actually be a greater number. I state the case in this YouTube segment for writing-in Bernie Sanders is Clinton is the nominee.
As for pressing issues like gun control, Clinton’s stance has changed dramatically since 2008, as stated in a New York Times piece titled Clinton Portrays Herself as a Pro-Gun Churchgoer:
“I disagree with Senator Obama’s assertion that people in our country cling to guns…” she said.
She described herself as a pro-gun churchgoer, recalling that her father taught her how to shoot a gun when she was a young girl and said that her faith “is the faith of my parents and my grandparents.”
Is there a reason Hillary Clinton chose guns and faith as two ways to alienate our nation’s first black president?
Furthermore, the problem with another Clinton White House is that Hillary is far more militant than Bill, and also once fabricated a war story according to POLITIFACT:
“I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base.”
But that’s not what happened, as demonstrated by CBS News video that shows Clinton arriving on the tarmac under no visible duress, and greeting a child who offers her a copy of a poem.
Imagine if Bernie Sanders had made that same statement. This fabrication is magnified by Clinton’s willingness to send American ground troops back to war last November.
For superdelegates and Democratic Party bosses, it’s power that drives their votes, not principle, and Bernie Sanders is quickly becoming the most pragmatic choice in 2016. In an average of national polls, Bernie Sanders is now only about 2 points behind Hillary Clinton. With Sanders defeating Clinton in two national polls and close in every other national poll, my views on polling trajectory last September were more accurate than any other prognostication regarding Bernie Sanders and poll numbers. Bernie Sanders just won his seventh straight contest heading into New York. Aside from H. A. Goodman, nobody predicted the following Guardian headline at this point in the election season: Bernie Sanders just won his seventh straight victory. Is he unstoppable?
Also, if you question my prediction that Sanders would win Southern states, be sure to read the actual article. It foreshadows Bill Clinton’s recent tirade against Black Lives Matter, based upon how the Clintons campaigned against Obama. It also foreshadows the true feelings of Bill Clinton towards the epidemic of mass incarceration. Michelle Alexander, author of The New Jim Crow, explained in The Nation why Hillary Clinton doesn’t deserve the black vote, and part of this explanation correlates to Bill Clinton’s recent diatribe.
Just months after apologizing for mass incarceration, Bill Clinton revealed his true intentions, but only after Hillary had utilized votes in the South to gain an early lead over Bernie Sanders.
“You are defending the people who killed the lives you say matter,” said Bill Clintonto Black Lives Matter. Again, if you enjoy saying I was wrong about Sanders defeating Clinton in the South, read the actual article; it foretells Bill’s recent defense of mass incarceration.
Superdelegates won’t switch too soon, for fear of retribution from Clinton, but it’s coming, and Sanders will become Democratic nominee regardless of delegate count. Lee Fang of The Intercept and several other journalists have documented superdelegate ties to Clinton and lobbying, and if Clinton becomes nominee, these ties will be magnified by a disenchanted progressive base. The party bosses are loyal, but they’re not stupid.
An iceberg named Hillary Clinton threatens the system of honest graft that provides political power to so many establishment Democrats. Superdelegates and the DNC know that an irreparable fracture within the Democratic Party awaits, if Bernie Sanders isn’t the nominee. They’ll wait until the last second, especially until after the FBI’s decision, to side with Vermont’s Senator. Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic nomination, not only because of a progressive political revolution, but also because it’s in the political interest of Democratic Party bosses.