From time to time I update my views on markets – various markets. Now, April 1st seems a good time:
On December 26, 2017 – (Bitcoin $15,745.26) I issued my first strong recommendation on the demise of the Bitcoin.
July 11, 2018 – (Bitcoin $6,355) I reinforced my previous negative recommendation but more cautionary bearishness.
Today April 1, 2019 – (Bitcoin $4,139.18) I continue to believe the Bitcoin is a poor investment prone to further declines.
NEW YORK REAL ESTATE
December 26, 2017 – A strong negative bias.
July 11, 2018 – The view still in place.
April 1, 2019 – No change.
December 26, 2017 – A modest bearish leaning.
July 11, 2018 – A stronger negative view.
April 1, 2019 – A devastating future for consumer expenditures. With the middle class getting crunched by the new tax law and the tariff position of the administration. Inexpensive raw materials and goods are, for now, unobtainable while the lower income 75% of he U.S. are still at levels of inflation adjusted pay achieved 15 years ago. Augurs poorly for consumer goods.
December 26, 2017 – Caution advised at about 25,000 in the Dow.
July 11, 2018 – Dow 25,000 further extreme caution as the market proposed clearly up by the administration using tax payer monies (Plunge Protection Plan.)
April 1, 2019 – Dow about 26,000 supported by tax payer funds through the Plunge Protection plan. The Plunge Protection plan and the use of unlimited tax payer funds to support the market is likely to come under the congressional eye. I predict a substantial stock market decline then. The economy and its prognosis, the world economic stress, the political footballs, the disregard for all but the 1% and the limited effect of monetary policy (fiscal policy ruled out by this administration) do not augur for a good market.
CORPORATE BOND MARKET
December 26, 2017 – Negative.
July 11, 2018 – Negative.
April 1, 2019 – Negative.
SAUDI ARAMCO IPO
December 26, 2017 – Highest risk of all.
July 11, 2018 – No change.
April 1, 2019 – Cancelled. Saudi disregard for rule of law will deter investments by all but the most greedy investors.
December 26, 2017 – Market caution.
July 11, 2018 – More caution. See my Avenue Magazine Column. (LINK)
April 1, 2019 – A buyers market – more extraordinary works for sale – fewer buyers willing to pay up. Limited liquidity at prices of old. Auction estimates low and sales taking place at reduced prices. Guaranteed works the newly owned property of the guarantors in most cases. A buyers’ market.